By Mark Valentini, Vice President of Legislative Affairs
Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) to keep government open in time for the March 14 deadline. The CR funds federal government operations at previous FY24 levels, but came to a head under contentious circumstances as Democrats, struggling to find footing under Republican majorities, faced pressure from the party base to negotiate a better deal that would push back against proposed cuts to Medicare and Medicaid while holding the Trump administration to task on its efforts to reduce the size of the federal government. The House of Representatives passed the CR on a party-line vote with only one defection from each party, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) vehemently opposed to the CR as Democrats were not included in negotiations with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and the Republican rank-and-file. Upon consideration by the Senate, and with little time to negotiate a better deal for his caucus, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) opted to avoid a shutdown by supporting the CR, opening the door for enough Senate Democrats to help Republicans get the 60 votes needed (cloture) for final passage of the bill with a simple majority.
House and Senate Democrats, specifically Sen. Schumer, were cornered by President Trump and Congressional Republicans. The onus of a shutdown was placed squarely on the shoulders of Democrats, who have been historically opposed to the threat of a shutdown for political leverage; however, the Democratic base saw a shutdown as the only leverage their leaders had in a political reality where they otherwise have none. The choice would be to allow a shutdown, which would place blame on Democrats (who were otherwise handed the “clean” CR they ultimately would have gotten had they negotiated) while contributing to further chaos in light of highly disruptive government reorganization under President Trump, or support the shutdown resulting in further disunity between Democrat activists and their party establishment: Senate Democrats, after being handed the proverbial ball by House Republicans, opted for the latter resulting in calls for Sen. Schumer’s resignation from his leadership post. In football parlance, he took a knee for the 20 when the coaching staff and the “guys upstairs in the box” thought he should have tried to run the ball a little further.
The story does not end here. The current CR keeps government funded through the remainder of the fiscal year ending September 30, three months prior to what is expected to be a historic midyear election season. At the current trajectory of the Republican agenda, Congressional Democrats will be under considerably more pressure to assert themselves in an effort to energize their electoral base as they approach midterms. Republicans would best position themselves by gaining a full-year CR after September 30, essentially robbing Democrats of any modicum of serious political leverage until November elections. If Democrats force a shutdown after September 30 it may energize the base but at the risk of being blamed for any repercussions; however, with the perception that government is already not working by virtue of being systematically dismantled via Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Democrats may not feel like they have much to lose.
Timing here is everything. An immediate shutdown after September 30 might be too soon to be an issue carried over into the new year and election season without a months-long and politically painful government shutdown the likes of which we’ve never seen. However, a short-term CR that extends government operations into the new year without a prolonged shutdown buys Democrats more time to gain more leverage under threat of a shutdown, motivating their base to turnout and mitigate their 2024 electoral losses.
Republicans must vie for an environment where the policies implemented under the Trump administration and supported by Republican lawmakers results in tangible economic security for American voters, a factor more than any other that has decided elections for over a century. The tariff and tax reform policies driven by Republicans will ultimately shape that economic perception. While politics might motivate voters to the polls, economic conditions ultimately drive the decisions that they make when they get there.
