By Mark Valentini, Vice President of Legislative Affairs
As the government shutdown lasts nearly a month, House and Senate Democrats continue to hold firm on demands for Republicans and the Trump Administration to reverse rollbacks of Medicaid cuts and Obamacare tax credits under the recently-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. There are further demands from some corners of the Democratic caucus to also reverse Federal employee layoffs instituted since the beginning of the Trump administration. Republicans would need to agree in principle to offer those concessions (at least on health care) in order for Democrats to agree to a short-term continuing resolution that reopens the government while leadership sorts through the details that leads to passage of a full-term budget resolution.
The dynamic of the shutdown highlights the limited leverage of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and the intense pressure from their political base to counter the Republican majority’s policy agenda. This dynamic is compounded by threats faced by Democratic incumbents from the political left as the next generation of mostly younger up-and-coming leaders increasingly seek to phase-out the “old guard” leaders such as Sen. Schumer and other Democrats perceived as out-of-touch with the party’s base.
The strategy employed by Leaders Schumer and Jeffries seems to be two-fold:
- Use the limited leverage they have to force a government shutdown by refusing to support a short-term continuing resolution in order to secure concessions from Republicans, ergo “throwing a bone” to the liberal base in order to placate it while relying on voters to forget about this entire ordeal come Election Day next year.
- Put pressure on rank-and-file Republicans by highlighting the expected increase in health care costs should Republican leaders continue to refuse Democrats’ demands.
On the second highlight, if Democrats secure the concessions they seek, they can take credit for saving American health care in time for election season, and if the shutdown ends with no concessions they can lay blame at the feet of Republicans for increases in health care premiums while telling the Democratic base “hey, we tried!” This strategy seems to be bearing fruit with several rank-and-file Republicans including conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has recently been sounding alarm bells about the potential risks Republicans face if they do not address the health care issue.
That same strategy, however, could backfire in a prolonged shutdown as Democrats might be perceived as too bullheaded while risking government and economic security for their own political purposes. As the shutdown continues, more light will be shed on the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the approach employed by the minority.
PHCC advocacy efforts on Capitol Hill are not impacted as staff and lawmakers remain accessible for discussion on legislative priorities unrelated to the shutdown. Access to federal agencies is currently limited but the Environmental Protection Agency hosted a public hearing on Monday, October 20 on reconsidering the Technology Transitions Rule and a proposal to eliminate the install deadline for legacy R-410A equipment. The U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy remains active, hosting an October 22 roundtable discussion on Trade Barriers and USMCA Agreement Operations.
Regardless of the outcome, there are no winners when the government shuts down. PHCC urges Congress and the Administration to work together to reopen the government and get back to work for the American people.
