By Robert P. Mader
Americans should root for a decisive victory – by either side – in November’s election, said political analyst Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. If the election comes down to a couple thousand votes for either president or control of the Senate, it will be hard for the nation to move forward.
A close election could present trust issues for some segments of the electorate. Gonzales, a non-partisan political analyst, has written about politics for nearly 20 years, starting at The Rothenberg Political Report before taking over the company in 2015. He offered his insights into the presidential, House and Senate races during a keynote address during the Sept. 30-Oct. 1 PHCCCONNECT2020 virtual convention, still available on demand for new and current registrants for the event..
Reading the Polls
National polls indicate former Vice President Joe Biden has been leading President Trump for the past six months, noted Gonzales. He suggested President Trump can still win re-election, but if polling data in key states is accurate, Biden has the advantage. Gonzales expressed skepticism that anything could change this, even the battle for the open Supreme Court seat, as most Americans have seemingly made up their minds.
Gonzales said he’s often challenged about polling, given how inaccurate the polls were in 2016. However, he argues this time the polling is more granular, going state by state and House district by House district. He believes that Biden has more paths to victory in the Electoral College than Trump does, needing to win the states won by Hillary Clinton, plus one other such as Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. His data indicates the president is vulnerable in Nevada, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina; even Texas is a battleground state.
Gonzales expects the Democrats to pick up between three and five seats in the Senate and to maintain their majority in the House. He expects Democratic Senator Doug Jones to lose in Alabama, but Republican Senators Susan Collins in Maine, Cory Gardner in Colorado and Joni Ernst in Iowa are vulnerable. Republicans won a lot of Senate seats in 2014, which means they have a lot of seats to defend this year. Republicans would need to take 17 House seats to control the chamber, but Gonzales doesn’t foresee any way that could happen.
Gonzales urged patience because he doesn’t expect the results of the election – for president and for control of the Senate – to be available the night of November 3. If Biden takes states such as North Carolina or Florida on election night, that would be a clear indication of which way the race will go. If the President wins those states, it means the election will be close or favors a Trump victory.
PHCCCONNECT2020 Content is Still Available!
For more timely perspectives on national and industry trends, as well as practical, results-driven tips to manage your business in challenging times, it’s not too late to access the full line-up of the more than 25 education sessions and 39 exhibits offered at PHCCCONNECT2020! Just visit phccweb.org/connect to register for the content that you can view when it’s convenient for your schedule. And, if you did register to experience the live two-day event, remember that you can still experience the on-demand content for 60 days on the event website! Questions? Email firstname.lastname@example.org for assistance.